Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios
The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of East Asia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the model projections.
作 者： XU Ying ZHAO Zongci LUO Yong GAO Xuejie 作者单位： Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 刊 名： 气象学报（英文版） SCI 英文刊名： ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA 年，卷(期)： 2005 19(4) 分类号： P4 关键词： globe East Asia 21st century projection climate change